09/10/2018 Potential DOBs

Hello Everyone,

Here is the Early List of Potential DOBs we will look at write-ups will be up in morning sometime.

4:35 Brighton – Amitie Waltz / Now a Non-Runner

2:00 Catterick – Chitra

Firstly the pace angle in this there looks to be one front-runner in the shape f kyroc, With a lot of these liking to sit off the pace the selection likes to be up with the pace, so this could set up for horses near the front which is ideal for us, The horse has only had one run on good ground and it dobbed, I take that with a pinch of salt if any horse has had less than 3 runs with any filter I look at again 2  runs a 5f with 50% dob profile. No runs at the course so I will use the filter of similar courses racing post describes it as “Left-handed 1m1f oval, undulating and very sharp with handiness essential” Undulating our horse has no data for but on a very sharp track one run and a successful dob, this I like because some horses take better to extremes like this and its the same for the next filter LH or RH tracks, LH was 80% out of 5 runs which is great . No runs in the month of October for any of the horses in this race so at the moment very little data to go on. Class 6 races 3 runs and 100% dob now its looking better. Lastly 10-12 Runners 100% over 3 runs.

Now with this selection, we have so little data in regards to conditions, We wouldn’t be staking but in regards to the make and characteristics, I would be happy to stake something The best way to approach this race is not going for a full DOB and just take a small profit. Our selection is fav and likes to race near the front, therefore, the market will likely overreact and the price may tumble on a good start helping us get matched further down the ladder, look for 30%-50% profit. So if your staking £50 take between £15-£25 profit.

4:10 Catterick – Meerpat

Now, looking at the pace angle in the to us there is a couple that could lead and lots of horses like to be up with it so this could be set up for and horse out the back, our selection is probably going to sit mid-pack, ground conditions with have 2 runs for 100% dobs distance with have a great profile of 86% with a couple of double dobs and a treble dob in there. No course form or significant similar course data to go on either. Now looking an the class of race this is Class 5 Meerpat is 100% 6 runs 3 of those runs were in handicaps were there were 2 dobs and a treble dob which the horse won the race the other 3 races were novice races, this info helps with the pace angle because the horse can compete at this level well and won’t be done for speed (Famous Last Words). LH Tracks not too shabby at 83% with a good amount of runs. Lastly 8-10 runners again as before 83% dobs.

Now we’re much happier with the make-up and profile of our selection in this race and we are going to be looking for a full dob in this but if you’re conservative you may want to look for 50%-80% profit on stake amount.

5:30 Leicester – Cuttin Edge

Plenty of front-runners so this horse will set up much like our previous selection sit mid-pack and make a move later in the race. In regards to ground and distance there both at 67%. Course description of “Right-handed, undulating oval, about 1m6f round with 5f run-in” Has 1 run at the course this was a double dob similar undulating the horse is 100% so doesn’t with this at all RH tracks are fine as well. Not enough data about field size to be confident.

Looking at the above this selection isn’t as strong as meerpat so we think the best way to approach would be 50%-80% profit leaning towards the lower end of that scale.

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